Alex Henderson

Trump Is Shockingly Losing Voters in These 4 Red States

      

 ALEX HENDERSON, ALTERNET, July 13, 2020 

Recent polls have given President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign very little reason for optimism. Poll after poll has shown Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. Biden is quite competitive in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Virginia, but the most shocking part is how well the centrist Democrat is performing in some red states that Trump decisively won in 2016. Of course, any smart Democratic strategist realizes that the last thing Biden should become is overconfident, and one should never underestimate the GOP’s capacity for voter suppression — especially when it comes to communities of color. But if recent polls are any indication, Biden has a shot at victory even in some red states.

Here are four red states where the former vice president, according to polls, is shockingly competitive.

1. Texas

Although Texas is still a red state, it’s light red at this point: Texas’ major urban centers lean Democratic (including Houston, Austin, Dallas and El Paso), Trump won Texas by 9% in 2016 (not quite double digits) and Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within striking distance of far-right Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2018 midterms. Until Democrats start winning more statewide races in Texas, it would be premature to think of it as a swing state — let alone a blue state. But recent polls indicate that Texas is in play for Biden’s campaign. A Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll released on July 12 found Trump trailing Biden by 5% in the Lone Star State, and Biden was ahead of Trump in Texas by 1% in recent polls from Fox News, CBS News/YouGov and Quinnipiac University.

Obviously, 1% is well within the margin of error, but the very fact that Biden has a chance in the Lone Star State is bad news for Trump’s campaign.

2. Georgia

Georgia, like Texas, is light red but not deep red. In 2018, Democrat Stacy Abrams ran a decidedly liberal campaign yet came within striking distance of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. And recent polls of the presidential race show that Georgia is not a state that Trump can take for granted. A recent OAN/Gravis Marketing poll found Trump leading Biden by 3% in Georgia, yet another polls have found Biden leading in that state by 2% (Fox News) or 4% (Public Policy Polling).

3. Kansas

Not since President Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide victory over Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona in 1964 has a Democratic presidential candidate won in Kansas — which has a reputation for being a deep red state. Democratic strategists have been writing Kansas off as a lost cause in presidential elections, and Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 20% in Kansas in 2016. A Civiqs poll released in late May found Trump leading Biden by 12% in Kansas, but more recent polling has found that Trump’s lead over the former vice president in that state is down to the single digits.

In a state as Republican as Kansas, Trump should have a consistent double-digit lead. But then, Kansas is also where Democrat Laura Kelly, now Kansas’ governor, achieved a surprising victory in 2018.

4. Montana

Montana, like Kansas, is a state that Trump won by 20% in 2016. But a recent Montana State University poll found Trump leading Biden by only 5% in Montana. And in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is leading incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines by 7%. Those are not the type of numbers Republicans should be seeing in a state as red as Montana.

Alex Henderson is a news writer at AlterNet and veteran political journalist. His work has also appeared in Salon, The Raw Story, Truthdig, The National Memo, the Philadelphia Weekly, the New Civil Rights Movement, Democratic Underground, The L.A. Weekly, MintPress News and many other publications. Follow him on Twitter @alexvhenderson.